how the AI market behaves with early adopters constantly chasing the latest models, while companies like Google focus on mass adoption over being the next shiny thing.

One of the craziest things about AI, in my opinion, is how our market is behaving right now. It's fascinating, and I want to elaborate on this a little bit.

First of all, what's remarkable is that nobody wants what was, until two months ago, the state-of-the-art model. Nobody wants to use it anymore. All of the early adopters, at least, are jumping between state-of-the-art models like crazy. Nobody wants an average model anymore, even though the average model yesterday was incredible—but now it's just average, and nobody wants to use it.

There's a new Gemini? Everybody's going to use the new Gemini. Nobody's going to use the old Gemini. Of course. There's a new ChatGPT? Everybody's going to use the new ChatGPT. But if the ChatGPT isn't as good as the Gemini, well, nobody's going to use the ChatGPT. And vice versa. Even though there are some preferences and some people prefer this or that. I find it remarkable.

The Normies vs. The Early Adopters

Now, I don't think this is true for the entire public. If you think about normal people—the normies that use AI in chat interfaces—they either use Google, Claude, or the ChatGPT app, and that's it. That's the entire public.

My analysis is that Google is really crushing it right now in terms of what they offer to the normal user, the average user. I think OpenAI is losing a lot of base because their app is just not as compelling as it used to be. The rate limiting, prices, and stuff like that—I think they're losing a lot of their user base. Meanwhile, Google is doing what they do best: giving gifts to the entire world. They've been doing this for over two decades.

Seth Godin's Wisdom on Early Adopters

Seth Godin once said that when you put a product out there and it's amazing, the early adopters are going to love you. But at some point, the early adopters are going to leave you for the next shiny thing, because they are early adopters. And at some point, you will have to stop trying to satisfy them in being the next shiny thing and just roll to the bigger adaptation, the bigger audience, the bigger market, and base yourself over there.

What I'm seeing right now is that most of us—or it feels like in X, it feels like pretty much all of us—are going after the next shiny object. But normies don't really do that. Normies are going to settle on the good enough, robust solution for them.

Google's Mass Adoption Strategy

This is exactly what I think Google is doing super well nowadays. They just know it. They are focusing on the masses. They are not trying to be the next shiny object. They don't make their models for the state-of-the-art people—kind of. Even though they do, they don't really do that. They do that in a way that it's not the best cutting-edge technology via their app or whatever.

Even though they offer great competitive prices via their API and their models are very robust with multimodality and stuff like that, they don't go that route exactly. They are going the route of the normies and mass adaptation.

Right now, Google's Gemini product is offering more service to the world than any other AI platform. It's probably the most usable one. I don't know if it has the most amount of users, but I think it's the most usable one and it's probably driving the most people out there.

The Painful Transition

This is a painful decision to make as a business owner: to let go of what those with very, very high taste think about you and go for the vast majority of the people. Even though the early adopters have brought you to where you're at right now, at some point you need to let go of them.

The Apple Analogy

This is the same transition that happened with Apple. Apple once, way back in the day, was just for weirdos. But those weirdos designed the whole approach, marketing approach, and the DNA of the company. But Apple has slowly transitioned into what is now mass adoption by the vast majority of people—everybody has an iPhone in their pocket.

They didn't start there. The company was absolutely completely different back in the day. But nowadays, this is what they are and this is what they're doing. I find it fascinating. This is why they're such an incredible company.

What is the best thing about Apple? I'll say it in one sentence: their churn is amazing. People don't leave them. Once they are in the ecosystem, they don't really leave, which is an incredible thing to have in a product.

Apple and the AI Race

For example, Apple is not racing the AI race. Not at all. Maybe in the back scene, in the backstage, maybe. But they're not racing the AI race because they don't want to be the next shiny object. They're not there anymore. They don't have Steve anymore. They are just a profitable company, basically.

I hope you enjoyed this one.
If you need more I'm here.